The IEA findings underscore a series of recent reports indicating shipping is nowhere near reducing its reliance on fossil fuels
SHIPPING would need to put 36 ammonia-fuelled vessels into service every month to meet any net carbon zero emissions targets, the International Energy Agency said.
The industry’s “technology readiness” was only at the demonstration phase for ammonia-powered vessels, underscoring a series of recent reports indicating shipping is nowhere near reducing its reliance on fossil fuels.
Shipping aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2050, although individual countries have set lower targets.
The coronavirus pandemic has stifled overall investment in clean technology and weakened innovation, the IEA special report on energy technology found.
“Without a major acceleration in clean energy innovation net-zero emissions targets will not be achievable,” it said.
The report, published every three years, analysed more than 400 technology designs and components including electrification, carbon capture and storage, low-carbon hydrogen and hydrogen derived fuels and bioenergy.
The world share of hydrogen and electricity in final energy demand by end-use sector for hydrogen technology showed that shipping would comprise less than 1% under current policies, rising to just under 13% under the IEA’s “sustainable development scenario”.
That scenario assumes current targets under the Paris Agreement, from which shipping is exempt, are met. To meet targets shipping needs 36 vessels a month powered by ammonia, with the technology for electrolytic hydrogen-based ammonia to fuel vessels needs to reach the market in about 12 years’ time.
“The key technologies the energy sector needs to reach net-zero emissions are known today, but not all of them are ready,” the IEA said.
Around 35% of the cumulative C02 emissions reductions needed to shift to a sustainable path come from technologies currently at the prototype or demonstration phase.
“A further 40% of the reductions rely on technologies not yet commercially deployed on a mass-market scale. This calls for urgent efforts to accelerate innovation,” the report said.
Consumer products such as LEDs and lithium ion batteries took 10 to 30 years to go from the first prototype to the mass market, and should be the benchmark for energy technologies to get to zero emissions, according to the report.
Like many industries shipping is nearly one investment cycle away from 2050, making investment timing and availability of new technologies critical, the IEA said.
The pandemic is a potential setback, with an IEA survey revealing companies developing net zero emission technologies will likely have research and development budgets reduced.
Separately, the International Maritime Organization said today it would hold an informal session online to discuss short-term measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions on ships from July 6 to July 10.
Key marine environment committee meetings to thrash out shipping’s decarbonisation agenda have been postponed by the pandemic, derailing an already slow process to determine policy to drive emission reductions
